NBA betting: Pacers vs. Knicks Game 7 prediction, expert pick, odds for Sun. 5/19 

Pacers vs. Knicks Odds

Sunday, May 19, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Indiana Pacers

The Hospital Knicks are without Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson, and Julius Randle for the year. Josh Hart is now listed questionable with an abdominal strain he suffered in Game 6. He didn't even play 40 minutes in that game.

OG Anunoby has been upgraded to questionable and ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski says he'll go through shootaround and could play. That would be a massive swing in this series. The Knicks were +14.4 in Anunoby's minutes before his injury and have been -6.7 in the minutes without him. He helps with timely corner shooting and more defensive versatility.

Anunoby is a big enough swing that you should wait to see if he's available before betting this game. He has a player option this summer and is likely to pursue a new deal with the Knicks, so he needs to protect that, but if he plays it could very well swing this game and decide the series.

The Knicks are 5-1 in the playoffs with a +7.8 point differential at home. Their formula for this game is the same as it is in every game:

• Jalen Brunson goes off for 30+
• Slam the offensive boards
• Win every hustle category and play slightly better defense
• Either Miles McBride or Donte DiVincenzo has a huge night from 3-point range

Jalen Brunson had a relatively off night in Game 6. But he went 1-of-7 vs. T.J. McConnell, Tyrese Haliburton, and Isaiah Jackson. Those shots count, but he was also 10-of-19 vs. the others — and the Knicks had a 114.5 offensive rating with him on the court. That's more than good enough to win.

The Knicks' issue was on the defensive side of the ball, where the Pacers poured it on. The Pacers have a 126 offensive rating at home in the playoffs. But that plummets to 111 on the road.

The Knicks have absolutely eradicated the Pacers on the glass outside of Game 6. In the three games in New York, the Pacers have lost the second-chance points battle by 19. Indiana has actually won in points off turnovers, and held even in fastbreak points and 3-pointers made when playing in New York. But they've gotten crushed on the glass, and that advantage likely returns with the raucous garden behind them.

The Knicks' angle for this is simple: OG returns, the Knicks crowd boosts their heroic group of short-handed heroes to another win behind clutch shooting, Brunson magic, and pure, unstoppable hustle.

New York Knicks

Indiana's injury report is clean outside of Benedict Mathurin, who is out for the year (and who they could really use tomorrow).

The Pacers have been the better team overall, by the numbers. I know, I know, basketball's not played on a spreadsheet. I get that.

But the Pacers have a +1.5 overall net rating in this series. That's slight, but it's meaningful in that through three games they have not been outscored and just found ways to win. Game 3 was surely a crazy outcome with Andrew Nembhard's buzzer beater, but that's how the playoffs go sometimes, and the overall margin for the Pacers is 7.

Sure, it doesn't necessarily feel that way. But that's the way it is. And that gives the Pacers a chance.

A Game 7 environment favors lower scoring teams, for sure, and it favors home teams. The Knicks should be favored, and they are, but only by 3.5 points.

Road teams who have won the point differential and are less than 4-point dogs or favored are 5-3 straight up, 6-2 ATS. Tiny sample, probably doesn't mean much. But it does at least work against the idea that this is the typical home smash spot for the Knicks.

The other factor here is that a big reason that home teams are so good in Game 7's is shot variance. Role players shoot better at home. But with the injuries and fatigue that the Knicks are facing, the Pacers' offensive floor is actually higher. If this becomes a brutal shooting contest, it can come down to extra Knicks possessions… or the Pacers can just make five more 3-pointers in a tough under game and win.

Indiana has played better defense on Brunson than they've been given credit for. He's an elite playoff player but they've done good work in their wins on him.

Pacers vs. Knicks

Betting Pick & Prediction

Let's go through the Game 7 trends:

• Home teams are 45-22 straight up, 35-32 ATS
• Home favorites are 44-19 SU, 34-29 ATS
• Eastern Conference home favorites (with less parity historically) are 24-9 straight up, 20-13 ATS
• 2-seeds as home favorites are 13-7 SU, 10-7 ATS
• An interesting twist though? Home favorites of less than 4-points are 4-8 straight up, 3-9 ATS
• Home teams who have lost the point differential and are home favorites are 3-5 SU, 2-6 ATS (the tiniest slices of samples here)
• Home favorites who win the game are 34-10 ATS (77%). The lesson is if you like the Knicks to win, lay the points
• Road dogs who cover are 19-10 straight up (65%). The lesson is slightly less emphatic but if you like the Pacers to cover, bet them to win

And of course, the under

• The under is 42-25 in Game 7
• Eastern Conference Game 7 unders are 22-12 (65%)
• Unders for Game 7's past the first round are 24-9 (73%)
• Unders for Eastern Conference Game 7's past the first round: 14-5 (73%)
• The under for totals under 200 is less potent at 40%, and just 8-10 the last 10 years
• The under for the team total for the losing team in a Game 7 is 50-17, 75%. That's compared to 70% for all other playoff games.

You can actually bet that last element on both sides for a small profit. Pacers ML and Knicks team total under is +202, Knicks ML and Pacers team total under is +128.

A very simple "Just bet the under" is not a bad look here, based on the trends. That's the safest bet. It's boring, but it's the highest probability based not only on trends, but how we see Game 7s.

I'll tell you that I have bet Pacers. It is way less of an analytics or Xs and Os matchup play and much more of a gut feeling. The logic, however is pretty simple.

Game 7's are decided by shot variance. I can go through the list of random guys to hit big Game 7 shots. Marcus Morris hit seven in a Game 7 vs. the Mavericks. Grant Williams hit seven when the Celtics beat the Bucks in 2022. (Both those players are tied with Stephen Curry — who you may have heard of, for most 3's in a Game 7.) Trevor Ariza hit six when the Rockets knocked off the Clippers. Steve Blake hit five vs. Denver in 2012.

The team with the higher offensive floor has an advantage here. The home team has a bigger one, for sure. But the Pacers can win this game by just hitting shots. The Knicks have the best player in the series but Brunson is limping to the finish with a foot injury and the fatigue of being a Thibs' player.

Josh Hart's injury is massive. If he can't go, even if Anunoby does, that impacts the Knicks' ability to dominate the glass, and takes away another key defender on the wing. It's not a net negative; Anunoby is better than Hart on both ends. But it matters. If he plays but can't be himself, what does he give the Knicks? Can Anunoby be himself?

Tyrese Haliburton has looked timid at may points in MSG. That can't happen in this one if the Pacers want to win. But I do think Indiana has consistently proven to be better than the market has expected, from Game 1 of the first round through Game 6. The Pacers are 1-3 as dogs in the playoffs but 2-2 ATS even with two horrible performances in the Garden.

It's very possible that there's no way the home crowd lets this valiant group of hustle junkies lose. The offensive rebound edge matters. But I'm not sure in a Game 7 the Knicks should be more than -2.5 with home court.

If Anunoby and Hart both play, I won't like it as much, and I honestly wouldn't bet the Pacers if the line moves the other way after they're announced in, even at a better number. If they're both ruled out, I think the Pacers have more value even at a reduced price.

Pair it with the Knicks' team total under as well.

Pick: Knicks Team Total Under 104.5 (-115)
SGP: Pacers ML + Knicks Team Total Under 104.5 (+202)