Equibase Analysis: Conquest Warrior Poses Upset Chance In Florida Derby

The Grade 1, $1 million Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa features 11 3-year-olds vying for a big purse and very important Road to the Derby points. After this race and the Arkansas Derby (to be run about one hour later), there are just three more races in the U.S. offering 200 points in total, 100 to the winner, to help decide who makes the starting gate in Louisville for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. 

Leading this year’s Florida Derby field is Hades, who won the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes in February before skipping the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes four weeks ago. Fierceness, who won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November, finished third in the Holy Bull and also skipped the Fountain of Youth. 

Le Dom Bro finished second in the Fountain of Youth, followed by Frankie’s Empire and Real Macho, with all three hoping to improve and make their mark in the division while the winner of that race, Dornoch, awaits his chance in the Blue Grass Stakes next weekend where he’s likely to face Risen Star Stakes winner Sierra Leone. 

Grand Mo the First missed winning the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby by a neck and a head recently and might run even better off three weeks rest. Conquest Warrior and Seminole Chief are moving from allowance company into stakes competition, but both showed a lot of talent in their recent victories. Iris’s Dream and Bail Us Out just earned the first wins of their careers. Catalytic finished second in an allowance race and not only steps up in class but tries two turns for the first time.

Analysis and main win contenders:

Conquest Warrior has a couple of things going for him that helped me decide he might be the most probable among a number of good 3-year-olds in this year’s Florida Derby. Most importantly, Conquest Warrior is the only horse in the field that has won at this 1 1/8-mile distance. That win came in his most recent start, four weeks ago, at Gulfstream, where he earned a career-best 85 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure. While that figure may not yet be in the same rarified air as the 97 figure Hades earned when winning the Holy Bull Stakes, the way Conquest Warrior won the race suggests he will improve markedly. In that effort, Conquest Warrior stalked in fourth for the first half-mile then moved quickly to second, then to lead, with an eight of a mile to run. He was effortless after that, drawing off to a five length margin under jockey Jose Ortiz, who rides back. Trained by Shug McGaughey, who teamed up with Ortiz to win the 2021 Holy Bull Stakes and Fountain of Youth Stakes with Greatest Honour before a third place finish in the Florida Derby that year, Conquest Warrior appeared to have the equivalent of a full tank of gas at the end of his last start which could enable him to post the mild upset in this field.

Hades might be the top pick in this year’s Florida Derby but I have slight concerns about his being off since winning the Holy Bull on Feb. 3, whereas Conquest Warrior ran on March 1. Perhaps Hades is the kind of horse that doesn’t need to run about every four to six weeks to keep in top shape and he did win the Holy Bull after five weeks off, but in this case he is returning from eight weeks off. Otherwise, Hades has no knocks, as he’s a perfect three-for-three in his career, with 97 and 95 ™ figures in his last two starts. Additionally, Hades breaks from the two post and has excellent tactical speed, with the horse inside of him in the gate (Frankie’s Empire) not likely to try for the lead. This allows jockey Paco Lopez, who has been in the saddle for all three wins aboard Hades, to get the horse on the lead and running easily from the start. In the Holy Bull, Hades led for the first half-mile, was a head behind after three-quarters of a mile had been run, then accelerated in the stretch to win by a couple of lengths. As such, Hades could be the horse to catch, and beat, in the Florida Derby.

Frankie’s Empire is a very interesting horse, not only because of his three race pattern of improving ™ figures, from 89 to 94 to 99, but because the career-best 99 figure earned four weeks ago in the Fountain of Youth was his first two-turn race of the year. Prior to that he had changed trainers and won the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream as he rallied from sixth of seven in the early stages. Although no match for Dornoch in the last quarter mile of the Fountain of Youth, Frankie’s Empire held Le Dom Bro safe the entire length of the stretch, demonstrating mental toughness. As a son of Classic Empire, whose son Angel of Empire won the 2023 Arkansas Derby at this distance, and as the 99 figure earned in the Fountain of Youth is a bit higher than the 95 figure Hades earned in the Holy Bull, Frankie’s Empire deserves consideration as a contender to win this race.

Honorable mention goes to Le Dom Bro, Seminole Chief and Fierceness, although I think they are considerably less probable to win than the three previously mentioned contenders. Although Le Dom Bro earned a career-best 99 figure in the Fountain of Youth, he ran evenly in the last quarter mile in that race so it appears he may prefer shorter distances. Seminole Chief earned a 96 figure in his allowance win last month but that was on the all-weather track and the figure was earned leading from the start, which he may not be able to do today with Hades breaking from a better inside post and wanting the early lead as well. Fierceness disappointed as the heavy favorite when checking in third in the Holy Bull with a 90 figure, nowhere near the 110 figure he earned winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, but he can improve.

The rest of the field, with their best representative ™ Equibase® Speed Figures, is Bail Us Out (86), Catalytic (85), Grand Mo the First (91), Iris’s Dream (81) and Real Macho (90).

Win Contenders in preference order:

• Conquest Warrior
• Hades
• Frankie’s Empire

Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa – Grade 1
Race 14 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, March 30 – Post Time 6:42 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million